A Date!

I went on a date!

...with one of my co-teachers 19 year old nieces. so sketchy sounding but it was a lot of fun. It went down like this:

My co-teacher apparently heard I was looking to make friends with some koreans. Apparently she assumed i meant...like...dating. You don't set up your niece to meet with a co-worker unless it's dating stuff, not here in korea anyways. So at first I was a little sketched out but then I decided to just take a chance and see what happened. Worst possible outcome was it would be horribly awkward and I would laugh at it in a couple weeks and have a good story.

I got to the meeting point a little early and realized two things; I had chosen a really terrible meeting location (chongshin is ugly as shit) and it was hot as fuck. So I waited inside a glamour store (that was also a convenience store??) looking just terrifically creepy I'm sure, eyeballing every young woman that walked out of the subway. I'll admit to being a little nervous, first real date in years, first blind date ever.

So a challenge was immediately presented to me, I had no idea what she looked like. and sadly I'm still unable to identify age so every "youngish" looking woman walking out of the subway was potentially her. Finally a young, but not too young, looking girl comes out and starts looking around. We make eye contact but she grabs for her phone and turns around. 1 min later she turns back and comes and says hello. Apparently she called her aunt to make get a description. Does this kinda thing happen a lot I wonder?

Well the first couple minutes were pretty darn awkward, but we went and got some coffee and donuts and chatted. and chatted, and chatted and chatted. We chatted for about 3 hours. We chatted about basically everything, family (she has a younger brother, freshman in highschool), friends, school, work life, future. Lots and lots. Considering that I can't speak Korean it must have been pretty exhausting for her. She spoke remarkably fluently and we were able to laugh over the mildly frequent grabs for the translator in her cell phone. She likes rap and electronic (like daft punk), that was probably the biggest surprise, she really likes american rap too. I recommended Ludikris (?), we'll see how that plays out. Another surprising thing was her attitude. apparently she was quite the tomboy growing up and now as an adult she's quite the determined, pratical young woman. If you ever meet a young korean woman I think you'll understand why i'm surprised, the majority of them are full of fluff and nonsense and care more about how they look than anything else. While she is quite attractive it didn't seem like she worried too much about it either. ...which makes her even more attractive to me at least.

We eventually ran out of steam. So we decided to take a tour of her school. It was very nostalgic to be back at a university; even with all the differences there were still enough similarities to ASU to bring back memories. And it was cute how excited she was to talk about classes and teachers and the like. She likes to swim for the school club team.

We finished up, rather tired, with a trip to get some ice cream from cold stone (nice). all told we spent about 5 hours talking. How'd it go? not sure. she complemented my eyes early on, she made it quite clear that she doesn't have a boyfriend. but i don't have a cell phone so we couldn't do the "exchanging numbers" routine. She also lives hella far away from me, in Nowon (no one), which i didn't realize until later that night. she traveled offly far for that date, somewhere around an hour or a little more. We shook hands once, and then again randomly. Sue me, i haven't been on a date in years and i wasn't sure what to do. I plan on writing her an email later tonight or tomorrow and maybe inviting her out to dongdaemon or myeong dong. something. I'd like to give props to emmy for giving me very down to earth advice on how to precede from the first date. Very helpful and soothing. Thanks gal!

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On Iran

I basically expressed the same sentiments only he's much more eloquent and, more importantly...he already wrote the whole thing. so copy paste!

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Washington and the Iran Protests:
Would they be Allowed in the US?

President Barack Obama had this to say about the Iran crisis on Tuesday:

' First, I'd like to say a few words about the situation in Iran. The United States and the international community have been appalled and outraged by the threats, the beatings and imprisonments of the last few days.

I strongly condemn these unjust actions, and I join with the American people in mourning each and every innocent life that is lost.

I've made it clear that the United States respects the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran and is not interfering with Iran's affairs.

But we must also bear witness to the courage and the dignity of the Iranian people and to a remarkable opening within Iranian society. And we deplore the violence against innocent civilians anywhere that it takes place.

The Iranian people are trying to have a debate about their future. Some in Iran -- some in the Iranian government, in particular, are trying to avoid that debate by accusing the United States and others in the West of instigating protests over the elections.

These accusations are patently false. They're an obvious attempt to distract people from what is truly taking place within Iran's borders.

This tired strategy of using old tensions to scapegoat other countries won't work anymore in Iran. This is not about the United States or the West; this is about the people of Iran and the future that they -- and only they -- will choose.

The Iranian people can speak for themselves. That's precisely what's happened in the last few days. In 2009, no iron fist is strong enough to shut off the world from bearing witness to peaceful protests of justice. Despite the Iranian government's efforts to expel journalists and isolate itself, powerful images and poignant words have made their way to us through cell phones and computers. And so we've watched what the Iranian people are doing.

This is what we've witnessed. We've seen the timeless dignity of tens of thousands of Iranians marching in silence. We've seen people of all ages risk everything to insist that their votes are counted and that their voices are heard.

Above all, we've seen courageous women stand up to the brutality and threats, and we've experienced the searing image of a woman bleeding to death on the streets.

While this loss is raw and extraordinarily painful, we also know this: those who stand up for justice are always on the right side of history.

As I said in Cairo, suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away. The Iranian people have a universal right to assembly and free speech.

If the Iranian government seeks the respect of the international community, it must respect those rights and heed the will of its own people. It must govern through consent and not coercion.

That's what Iran's own people are calling for, and the Iranian people will ultimately judge the actions of their own government. "

The thrust of these comments is to deplore the Iranian state's interference in the people's right of peaceable assembly and nonviolent protest, a right guaranteed in the constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

It is a good statement, insofar as it is phrased in terms that recognize an ongoing debate inside Iran and rejects US interference in Iranian domestic affairs.

But there are dangers here. Obama will likely be as helpless before a crackdown by the Iranian regime as Eisenhower was re: Hungary in 1956, Johnson was re: Prague in 1968, and Bush senior was re: Tienanmen Square in 1989. George W. Bush, it should remember, did nothing about Tehran's crackdown on student protesters in 2003 or about the crackdown on reformist candidates, which excluded them from running in the 2004 Iranian parliamentary elections, or about the probably fraudulent election of Ahmadinejad in 2005. It is hard to see what he could have done, contrary to what his erstwhile supporters in Congress now seem to imply. As an oil state, the Iranian regime does not need the rest of the world and is not easy to pressure. So Obama needs to be careful about raising expectations of any sort of practical intervention by the US, which could not possibly succeed. (Despite the US media's determined ignoring the the Afghanistan War, it is rather a limiting factor on US options with regard to Iran.) Moreover, if the regime succeeds in quelling the protests, however odious it is, it will still be a chess piece on the board of international diplomacy and the US will have to deal with it just as it deals with post-Tiananmen China.

And, the more Obama speaks on the subject, even in these terms, the more he risks associating the Mousavi supporters with a CIA plot. Iranian media are already parading arrested protesters who are 'confessing' that 'Western media' led them astray. In nationalist and wounded Iran, if someone is successfully tagged as an agent of foreign interests, it is the political kiss of death.

The fact is that despite the bluster of the American Right that Something Must be Done, the United States is not a neutral or benevolent player in Iran. Washington overthrew the elected government of Iran in 1953 over oil nationalization, and installed the megalomaniac and oppressive Mohammad Reza Pahlevi, who gradually so alienated all social classes in Iran that he was overthrown in a popular revolution in 1978-1979. The shah had a national system of domestic surveillance and tossed people in jail for the slightest dissidence, and was supported to the hilt by the United States government. So past American intervention has not been on the side of let us say human rights.

More recently, the US backed the creepy and cult-like Mojahedin-e Khalq (People's Holy Warriors or MEK), which originated in a mixture of communist Stalinism and fundamentalist Islam. The MEK is a terrorist organization and has blown things up inside Iran, so the Pentagon's ties with them are wrong in so many ways. The MEK, by the way, has a very substantial lobby in Washington DC and has some congressmen in its back pocket, and is supported by the less savory elements of the Israel lobbies such as Daniel Pipes and Patrick Clawson. I am not saying they should be investigated for material support of terrorism, since I am appalled by the unconstitutional breadth of that current DOJ tactic, but I am signalling that the US imperialist Right has been up to very sinister things in Iran for decades. A person who worked in the Pentagon once alleged to me that then Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld was privately pushing for using tactical nuclear weapons against Iran. And Dick Cheney is so attached to launching war on Iran that he characterized attempts to deflect such plans as a "conspiracy." Given what the US did to Fallujah, it strikes me as unlikely that a military invasion of Iran would be good for that country's civic life. And there are rather disadvantages to being nuked, even by the kindliest of WASP gentlemen of Mr. Rumsfeld's ilk.

Moreover, very unfortunately, US politicians are no longer in a position to lecture other countries about their human rights. The kind of unlicensed, city-wide demonstrations being held in Tehran last week would not be allowed to be held in the United States. Senator John McCain led the charge against Obama for not having sufficiently intervened in Iran. At the Republican National Committee convention in St. Paul, 250 protesters were arrested shortly before John McCain took the podium. Most were innocent activists and even journalists. Amy Goodman and her staff were assaulted. In New York in 2004, 'protest zones' were assigned, and 1800 protesters were arrested, who have now been awarded civil damages by the courts. Spontaneous, city-wide demonstrations outside designated 'protest zones' would be illegal in New York City, apparently. In fact, the Republican National Committee has undertaken to pay for the cost of any lawsuits by wronged protesters, which many observers fear will make the police more aggressive, since they will know that their municipal authorities will not have to pay for civil damages.

The number of demonstrators arrested in Tehran on Saturday is estimated at 550 or so, which is less than those arrested by the NYPD for protesting Bush policies in 2004.

I applaud the Iranian public's protests against a clearly fraudulent election, and deplore the jackboot tactics that the regime is using to quell them. But it is important to remember that the US itself was moved by Bush and McCain toward a 'Homeland Security' national security state that is intolerant of public protest and throws the word 'terrorist' around about dissidents. Obama and the Democrats have not addressed this creeping desecration of the Bill of Rights, and until they do, the pronouncements of self-righteous US senators and congressmen on the travesty in Tehran will be nothing more that imperialist hypocrisy of the most abject sort.

American politicians should keep their hands off Iran and let the Iranians work this out. If the reformers have enough widespread public support, they will develop tactics that will change the situation. If they do not, then they will have to regroup and work toward future change. US covert operations and military interventions have caused enough bloodshed and chaos. If the US had left Mosaddegh alone in 1953, Iran might now be a flourishing democracy and no Green Movement would have been necessary.

End/ (Not Continued)

posted by Juan Cole @ 6/24/2009 03:15:00 AM

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Worldchanging: Bright Green: Finland: The World's Best School System?

Worldchanging: Bright Green: Finland: The World's Best School System?

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Cramped living

Yea, i saw this on current. I totally digg where this guy is coming from...

http://disembedded.wordpress.com/2009/06/11/recessionist-living-a-tiny-closet-becomes-his-castle/

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SUCCESS!!

So, for some reason the students had a day off today. Apparently they were supposed to be working on their writing test thingy and also drawing pictures in the park. 3 things shocked me. A) they did this same thing in Full Metal Panic:Fumoffu and I thought it was a joke. B) these kids (the bad ones included) actually did the work. 3rd) they basically just let the kids roam wild through the park sans supervision (just like FMP). I think there were 2 or 3 other schools there as well. no problems were had.

anyways, i showed up late because...well...i do that. I asked a kid where the teachers were and the little bastard gave me perfect directions to them. SUCCESS!! I FRIGGIN TAUGHT THEM THAT! HEEEEEEEELLS YEA! so they may not be able to actually converse, but they are learning.

goodnight!

p.s. yea, i'm an anime nerd, but now i'm in asia where its the norm!

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The 3rd month (ish)

ah, so many things to say. the hardest part about these emails (i think) is condensing all your thoughts and feelings over several weeks down into one essay (basically). LET'S TRY!

So I'm into my third month here at this school in friggin South Korea. I have been told by many that this is when you enter the low point of your career here. You get depressed and/or homesick, you question your reasoning for coming here...you basically turn emo. I HAVE DEFIED THE TREND! It's not to say I'm particularly happy here. In fact, there are many things about Korea that make me plenty unhappy, namely, old people and disgusting habits. But all things considered, when I reckon that my only other real option was to go to more school and or do some menial job back in the states I feel pretty fortunate. Some days are pretty hard but I realize that has as much to do with not getting enough sleep as anything else. I guess people always wonder why you'd want to be a teacher, hell i still do. but every now and then I get that flash of understanding as to what it's like to teach a kid. It's very fulfilling though it only lasts until the next class that refuses to pay attention. I have a very thin skin and my days are made good or bad based on how attentive the students are that day. I actually prefer this, it means i'll stay involved both mentally and emotionally. The teachers who are thick-skinned have, in many cases, mentally checked out, they no longer care. I don't understand what keeps them coming back to work honestly. Money?

The job itself is pretty easy, i only have to prepare around 4 lesson plans a week and i get most of my ideas from a site called bogglesworld. This is totally legit and it's what most of the foreign language teachers here do. But that just means it's really easy. I have a lot of free time and as of yet I haven't been very constructive with it. I watch movies on youtube, spend a lot of time online in general, just surfing the web, trying to stay up to date with whats happening in the world

Korea is also "not so bad". I actually feel bad for Korea. The nation has basically spent it's entire existence fighting to keep even a minimal form of independence going all the way back to it's creation. They fought like hell to keep the chinese out but were basically autonymous region of china. Then Japan kicked the shit out of them in the 20th century and occupied the entire country until 1945. Then the US sat on them and has continued to do so to this day. And under all that they went from a dirt poor nation to the 11th largest GDP and a democracy in only 50 years. Not stinkin bad. But you never hear about anything related to South Korea with the exception of somehow being related to North Korea. It's either China this, Japan that, North Korea is doing something crazy. Never any mention of South Korea. A damn shame really, especially when you consider that korean's make up a fairly large minority group in America. It's going to be really cool to go to one of these enclaves in america and shock them with my Hangul prowess.

I think the key benefit for me has been that the lifestyle fits into my lifestyle. My apartment is decent and i don't have to pay ANY living expenses other than food. I end work at 5 and have the weekends and numerous "school holidays" off. Because I don't speak the language I can maintain my hermit like ways in relative normality and I really enjoy hanging out with people on the weekend (rather than simply trying to find some solitude). I get to workout again! I'm learning a new martial art, kumdo (kendo), which also includes learning nunchucks, staff and some throws and the like. I'm already pretty good with the chucks. i can do a flip, a kip up, AND i'm working on my handstand. So in that manner I'm having a great time! It's basically like being a monk. Speaking of which, did i mention most koreans are atheists? that's pretty cool.

The only real disappointment for me has been lack of friends. I have my solid, amanda, but i really thought I'd make a large number of new friends. I figured anyone who would want to travel to another country to teach would be kinda like me. WRONG! so i haven't made a lot of new friends, some, but not many. It doesn't bother me much but it is kinda lame feeling sometimes.

Right now I'm actually fairly happy with where I am in life. I'm learning a lot about education systems and foreign cultures and that's what I'm interested in doing with my life. If i stay in the US it's going to be either as a professor of sociology or as an education reformist. Otherwise I'll go international and use my foreign skills to be a badass lawyer.

So that's kind of my update in a nutshell, it's long and rambly but there ya go, hope you made it this far.

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lip biting

Yikes! so I'm administering speaking tests to the students for the next 2-3 weeks. I say 2-3 because one class apparently needed an extra week to study (i guess my fault, but have i mentioned they won't study at all independently) and all of thursdays classes are cancelled because of some poorly defined activity in the park that i have to go to. upside? I don't have to get up until 9 on thursday! SWING!

Anyways, I give the test independently so i see the kids one at a time. it's the first chance i've actually had to look at each member of each class calmly, without the pressure of trying to teach these kids. Shockingly, i can't even recognize some of the faces. But there's something more I noticed. These kids are fucking beat looking.

All lined up in class they don't look so bad, but when you're sitting 3 feet away from them staring for 2 or so minutes you actually get a chance to "see" them. The girls are pretty bad. Nearly all of them have bloody underlips, from chewing on their lips constantly. One poor girls cuticles were a bloody mess. As for the boys, they show signs of lip biting but it seems to be less prevalent. more concerning is the amount of scars and casts they have collected. It's a pretty raucus crowd apparently.

I didn't really see the signs of how stressed these kids are until this week. I'm writing this to help myself remember to take it easy on them, and not take it personally if they have trouble.

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Hypocrisy towards the fundamentalist extremists ... of america

So I had a startling realization the other day. I've been extremely hypocritical in my dealings with the radical right? Why? Simply because I've reacted to fundamentalist muslims and fundamentalist christians in very distinct manners. I've been very forgiving of the formers actions and very unforgiving of the latters.

I blog a lot, it gives me something to do. A lot of putzes out their display a distinct islamophobia in their posts and I tend to come down hard on them. For instance, in matters such as the Talibanization of Pakistan and the rockets from Hamas I have been a voice for compassion. I argue that they are impoverished and these religious organizations have offered education, jobs, healthcare and more to these desperate people. But when I discuss the religious right in america or Israel I tend to be both hostile and dismissive right up front.

Well that's just hypocritical. I shouldn't be any more upset by a christian terrorist attacking a doctor than I am with Hamas launching rockets at villages in Israel but I am. It's my own personal bigotry I guess. Largely I think my reasoning was that one side holds the power (the christian and jews) and the other side is just struggling to survive. But realistically they are both looking at the world, interpreting the world and acting on the world from the same fanatical viewpoint.

I have been loudly advocating that the way to handle muslim extremists is to bring them to the table, to open dialogue with them, to convince them that there is a better way. But I have basically resorted to ignoring or belittling the religious right in America and Israel. That's simply wrong. I realize that now and I'm going to change it. The only way to succeed is to bring all parties involved to the table and work out a solution. Most people act because they believe they are doing what's right, so in the case of fundamentalists we must simply convince them there's a better way. I realize now that it is not religion that is bad, it is the politicization of religion that has caused so much harm to the religions themselves AND to the rest of the world. There's a lovely saying that goes "without religion bad people will do bad things, but for a good person to do a bad thing, that takes religion." For a long time I agreed with that notion but now I realize that if it wasn't religion that was corrupting good people it would just be something else. As a christian says, look at the atrocities committed by "atheist nations" like china in the past century. Well they weren't done for religious or non-religious reasons but they certainly involved warping good people to commit acts of evil in the same kind of fervor induced by the radical religious right. So if not religion, it would be something else.

Here's a example from Israel. Israel doesn't want to deal with the two state solution but here's why they should. At the current population growth rate Israel will soon again be a muslim nation because the israeli muslims are breeding much faster than the jewish ones. Once muslims control the government there won't need to be a war, they'll just vote the way they want and the Jews will lose their control over their supposed homeland. Thus, it's in their best interest to come to the table and work out a two state solution. That's a really solid, pragmatic way of looking at the situation and I've decided i'm more of a pragmatists than anything simply because pragmatists actually get shit done.

This isnt' to say that we have to take a soft line. For instance, if israel fails to come to the table we should start cutting their aid. They get 5 billion annually from the US no strings attached. Start cutting that flow and see how long they hold out, God did say they were a stubborn people, but they aren't stupid either.

I may have to come back and edit this as I'm really tired but this is the gist of my thoughts (i know I can be clearer though).

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Update on the speaking test

Ah, so remember the lovely hate strewn article that was the previous post. Well i'm excited to say something decent has come out of it. The girl who placed first will be representing Danggok Middle school at the Gwanakgu regional competition. I'm gonna help her NAIL this contest, sadly...we only have a week to prep.

Culture clash. My co-teacher basically asked me to rewrite the entire paper for the girl and then give it to her, to which I elegantly replied "no, i don't do that." When he looked perplexed I explained that, just like i let go the bullshit that was the grading as mentioned in the last post because of culture he would have to understand that it went against my morals to do a students work for them (even if it was culturally acceptable here). He understood that part I'm delighted to say.

Regardless I'll be working with this girl for the next week and it'd be pretty righteous to represent for danggok seeing as were a pretty shitty school. Wish her luck!

Update: no apparently i will not be working with her. Her sisters boyfriend will help her. apparently he "lived in america for a long time". which i'm sure makes him more qualified than an actual native english speaker with a degree in english. oh well, good luck to her still.

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A Stupid Speaking Competition

Ok, So I just got done toughing out a speaking competition at my school. I say "toughing out" only because it was hard not to bust a gut laughing at some of the entrants. One duo sang brave by J-Lo. That's class right there. Did I mention they used their phone and barely sang louder than the speakers? Yea...and they got 4th place. It was hard.

But that's just funny, here's what's pissed me off. This one 2nd year worked really hard, using complex grammar and "big" words. She wasn't always accurate but she clearly pushed herself and her message was comprehensible. She came in behind the J-Lo duet. WTF?

Even better was the entrant who took 2nd place. This girl was basically incomprehensible and I have no idea what the fuck was going through the other teachers minds (considering they graded almost entirely in korean and just sort of ignored my note that it was FUCKING INCOMPREHENSIBLE). here's some examples of this piece:

"Everybody, have you heard about vank? (no motivational speaker, why don't you give us a pep talk about it!). Vanks growing process is seeds, taken roots, sprouts, in branches, in leaves, builds a nest (WTF?), and forest for hope. First seeds, Vank was started by Korean young man who sent e-mail to foreigner. (uh...why did he do that?) Misunderstanding korea a lot, then it made him encourage to adjust what they have thought wrong by creating cyber diplomatic organization. (Ok I can comprehend that even if it sounds retarded, apparently the kid randomly sent out emails and was shocked that people misunderstood his intentions). Next sprouts, i think this course is very important. passes by training 14 and is in order to discharge cyber diplomatic official. (Ok now what in the hell was that all about, fucking Word would have a field day with that paragraph, the page would look like it was on fire or bleeding or both). (...Christ!) Fourth, E-pen pal the whole nation, an error visibility and a world-wide civil education etc. various activity kind is in branches to do. (face palm). In leaves, escapes from the internet culture where the young people of Korea go rong and means that the change which grows with the world-wide citizen happens." (Bonk bonk bonk)

Alright so I don't mean to hate, english is hard for these kids, it's basically as far from their language as it's possible to get on earth. the thing isn't that the girl sucks, i mean that's not that big of a deal, the thing is she came in 2nd! of the entire school (out of 20 representatives). Now i had her marked down as last, or close to it, but because the girl is a senior she wins out of respect.

WHAT...THE...FUCK.

so this just makes me wonder, how in the world do these asian countries work if they are all run by the elderly regardless of how intelligent or educated they are? The only thing I can think is that the underlings just work their asses off to cover for them. It's mind boggling why they would though. damn, culture will make you do the most bizarre shit.

Blarg, well the school will certainly fail at the regional competition and it's little wonder.

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Time to light a fucking fire

Ok, so today i learned something I despise about my kids. The "rule" in Korea is that kids will only do work if they are forced to, they are completely unmotivated. Fuck that pisses me off. That means that kids that get behind in my class will never learn what was taught in that class because they just don't care. (there are exceptions, in my school, there are about 5, in private schools, and better schools, it's many many more). So I've decided to start doing a half hour lesson review at the end of the week for kids who don't pay attention in class. It's punishment because they have to stay afterschool but it's also a reward because it's free tutoring. Alright good, my teachers liked it and I just have to work it out and talk with the principle about it.

Next challenge: apparently they already are doing make up lessons because a lot of kids got aroudn 10/100 on the test or worse. WTF ARE THESE TEACHERS DOING?? this is just for grammar, not anythign I'm teaching them. But apparently these kids just won't come to the afterschool lessons. and NO ONE will take responsibility for getting them there. The Homeroom teachers are in charge of the kids overall at school. This means that, outside of individual classes, the homeroom teacher is in charge. However, the homeroom teachers apparently feel like they aren't responsible for getting these students to come to class, or, said another way, they are too lazy to want to deal wtih making these kids go to class. And of course the english teachers can't go to each class and pull these kids to class, that's not realistic. So basically these kids just don't get any structure because the homeroom teachers are lazy. It's actually the fault of the culture (either here at the school or in Korea in general). The kids are whiny little bitches, they whine about everything they have to do. They don't want to do ANYTHING and they will complain and make excuses about the most minimal things. They won't show up to these classes and then they'll just bullshit an excuse and the teacher is fine with it (i guess). So the homeroom teachers have basically given up apparently and only fight the fights that they absolutely HAVE to fight. They don't feel like taking on any additional responsibilities themselves, like say, getting their problem students to go to their afterschool classes.

But I'm curious, once you stop caring about your students, what's the point of being a teacher?

ITS TIME TO START A FUCKING REVOLUTION AT THIS SCHOOL!

(oh, another problem seems to be that many, if not most, of these kids are in homes that are possibly abusive and certainly neglectful. well...FUCK!)

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Zakaria = Intelligence

It is becoming increasingly clear that the story of the global economy is a tale of two worlds. In one, there is only gloom and doom, and in the other there is light and hope. In the traditional bastions of wealth and power—America, Europe and Japan—it is difficult to find much good news. But there is a new world out there—China, India, Indonesia, Brazil—in which economic growth continues to power ahead, in which governments are not buried under a mountain of debt and in which citizens remain remarkably optimistic about their future. This divergence, between the once rich and the once poor, might mark a turn in history.

Over the past six months, much conventional wisdom about the economy has been discredited. The old experts who spoke with confidence about unending global growth—the boomsters—have been debunked. But the new pundits of pessimism—the doomsters—have demonstrated a similar hubris, ignoring any evidence that might complicate their story. Six months ago, stock markets around the world swooned in unison as the American financial system seemed on the verge of collapse. This led many to conclude that the emerging economies of Asia and Latin America had been growing only because of their exports to America and Europe; that they obviously had no independent strengths of their own and would in all likelihood collapse faster and more furiously than the sophisticated economies of the West. After all, these were Third World countries.

But a funny thing happened on the way to a global depression. Once the panic that seized all global markets abated—because it became clear the world was not going to end—there began a fascinating and disparate recovery. The American stock market, after six plummeting months, has rebounded, so that the S&P 500 is roughly where it started the year, as is the London FTSE. Japanese stocks have fared better, up nearly 7 percent.

Around the globe, though, markets are humming. China's Shanghai index is up 45 percent, India's Sensex is up 44 percent, Brazil's Bovespa is up 38 percent and the Indonesia index is up 32 percent. Now, stock markets don't tell the whole story, but the reason many of these are rising is that the underlying economies of most of these countries are still registering significant growth. The evidence abounds. In April, India's car sales were 4.2 percent higher than they were a year prior. Retail sales rose 15 percent in China in the first quarter of 2009. China is likely to grow at 7 or 8 percent this year, India at 6 percent and Indonesia at 4 percent. These numbers are not just robust but astonishing when you line them up against those in the developed world. The U.S. economy contracted at an annual rate of 6.1 percent last quarter, Europe by 9.6 percent and Japan by a frightening 15 percent, something that truly does begin to rival the 1930s.

Compare the two worlds. On the one side is the West (plus Japan), with banks that are overleveraged and thus dysfunctional, governments groaning under debt, and consumers who are rebuilding their broken balance sheets. America is having trouble selling its IOUs at attractive prices (the last three Treasury auctions have gone badly); its largest state, California, is veering toward total fiscal collapse; and its budget deficit is going to surpass 13 percent of GDP—a level last seen during World War II. With all these burdens, even if there is a recovery, the United States might not return to fast-paced growth for a while. And it's probably more dynamic than Europe or Japan.

Meanwhile, emerging-market banks are largely healthy and profitable. (Every Indian bank, government-owned and private, posted profits in the last quarter of 2008!) The governments are in good fiscal shape. China's strengths are well known—$2 trillion in reserves, a budget deficit that is less than 3 percent of GDP—but consider Brazil, which is now posting a current account surplus. Or Indonesia, which has reduced its debt from 100 percent of GDP nine years ago to 30 percent today. And unlike in the West—where governments have run out of ammunition and are now praying that their medicine will work—these countries still have options. Only a year ago, their chief concern was an overheated economy and inflation. Brazil has cut its interest rate substantially, but only to 10.25 percent, which means it can drop it further if things deteriorate even more.

The mood in many of these countries remains surprisingly upbeat. Their currencies are appreciating against the dollar because the markets see them as having better fiscal discipline as well as better long-term growth prospects than the United States. Their bonds are rising. This combination of indicators, all pointing in the same direction, is unprecedented.

The United States remains the richest and most powerful country in the world. Its military spans the globe. But from the Spanish Empire of the 16th century to the British Empire in the 20th century, great global powers have always found that their fortunes begin to turn when they get overburdened with debt and stuck in a path of slow growth. These are early warnings. Unless the United States gets its act together, and fast, the ground will continue to shift beneath its feet, slowly but surely.

Zakaria hosts CNN's Fareed Zakaria GPS. His paperback, The Post-American World, is a New York Times bestseller.

(mind you, many people have been saying this same exact thing but he presents an analysis of and support for his argument, without sounding like a loony, which is why i'm giving him credit for this)

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